Effectiveness of a COVID-19 contact tracing app in a simulation model with indirect and informal contact tracing (preprint)

During the COVID-19 pandemic, contact tracing was used to identify individuals who had been in contact with a confirmed case so that these contacted individuals could be tested and quarantined to prevent further spread of the SARS-CoV-2 virus. Many countries developed mobile apps to find these contacted individuals faster. We evaluate the epidemiological effectiveness of the Dutch app CoronaMelder, where we measure effectiveness as the reduction of the reproduction number R. To this end, we use a simulation model of SARS-CoV-2 spread and contact tracing, informed by data collected during the study period (December 2020 - March 2021) in the Netherlands. We show that the tracing app caused a clear but small reduction of the reproduction number, and the magnitude of the effect was found to be robust in sensitivity analyses. The app could have been more effective if more people had used it, and if time intervals between symptom onset and reporting of contacts would have been shorter. The model used is novel as it accounts for the clustered nature of social networks and as it accounts for cases informally alerting their contacts directly after symptom onset, without involvement of health authorities or a tracing app.

Prevalence and severity of symptoms 3 months after infection with SARS-CoV-2 compared to test-negative and population controls in the Netherlands (preprint)

Background: More information is needed on prevalence of long-term symptoms after SARS-CoV-2-infection. This prospective study assesses symptoms three months after SARS-CoV-2-infection compared to test-negative and population controls, and the effect of vaccination prior to infection. Methods: Participants enrolled after a positive (cases) or negative (test-negative controls) SARS-CoV-2-test, or after invitation from the general population (population controls). After three months, participants indicated presence of 41 symptoms, and severity of four symptoms. Permutation tests were used to select symptoms significantly elevated in cases compared to controls and to compare symptoms between cases that were vaccinated or unvaccinated prior to infection. Findings: Between May 19th and December 13th 2021 9166 cases, 1698 symptomatic but test-negative controls, and 3708 population controls enrolled. At three months, 13 symptoms, and severity of fatigue, cognitive impairment and dyspnoea, were significantly elevated between cases and controls. Of cases, 48.5% reported [≥]1 significantly elevated symptom, compared to 29.8% of test-negative controls and 26.0% of population controls. Effect of vaccination could only be determined for cases <65yrs, and was found to be significantly protective for loss of smell and taste but not for other symptoms. Interpretation: Three months after SARS-CoV-2 infection, almost half of the cases still report symptoms, which is higher than the background prevalence and prevalence in test-negative controls. Vaccination prior to infection was protective against loss of smell and taste as assessed in cases aged <65.

Prevalence and determinants of persistent symptoms after infection with SARS-CoV-2: Protocol for an observational cohort study (LongCOVID-study) (preprint)

Background: A substantial proportion of individuals infected with severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) report persisting symptoms weeks and months following acute infection. Estimates on prevalence vary due to differences in study designs, populations, heterogeneity of symptoms and the way symptoms are measured. Common symptoms include fatigue, cognitive impairment and dyspnea. However, knowledge regarding the nature and risk factors for developing persisting symptoms is still limited. Hence in this study we aim to determine the prevalence, severity, risk factors and impact on quality of life of persisting symptoms in the first year following acute SARS-CoV-2 infection. Methods: The LongCOVID-study is both a prospective and retrospective cohort study with a one year follow up. Participants aged 5 years and above with self-reported positive or negative tests for SARS-CoV-2 will be included in the study. The primary outcome is the prevalence and severity of persistent symptoms in participants that tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 compared to controls. Symptom severity will be assessed for fatigue using the Checklist Individual Strength (CIS subscale fatigue severity), pain (Rand-36/SF-36 subscale bodily pain), dyspnea (Medical Research Council (mMRC)) and cognitive impairment using the Cognitive Failure Questionnaire (CFQ). Secondary outcomes include loss of health-related quality of life (HRQoL) and risk factors for persisting symptoms following infection with SARS-CoV-2. Discussion: A better understanding regarding the nature of persisting symptoms following SARS-CoV-2 infection will enable better diagnosis, management and will consequently minimize negative consequences on quality of life. Keywords: SARS-CoV-2, post COVID-19 condition, LongCovid, prevalence, HRQoL, risk factors

The impact of vaccinating adolescents and children on COVID-19 disease outcomes (preprint)

Introduction: Despite the high COVID-19 vaccination coverage among adults, there is concern over a peak in SARS-CoV-2 infections in the coming months. To help ensure that healthcare systems are not overwhelmed in the event of a new wave of SARS-CoV-2 infections, many countries have extended vaccination to adolescents (those aged 12-17 years) and may consider further extending to children aged 5-11 years. However, there is considerable debate about whether or not to vaccinate healthy adolescents and children against SARS-CoV-2 because, while vaccination of children and adolescents may limit transmission from these groups to other, more vulnerable groups, adolescents and children themselves have limited risk of severe disease if infected and may experience adverse events from vaccination. To quantify the benefits of extending COVID-19 vaccination beyond adults we compare daily cases, hospital admissions, and intensive care (IC) admissions for vaccination in adults only, those 12 years and above, and those 5 years and above. Methods and Findings: We developed a deterministic, age-structured susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered (SEIR) model to simulate disease outcomes (e.g., cases, hospital admissions, IC admissions) under different vaccination scenarios. The model is partitioned into 10-year age bands (0-9, 10-19, ..., 70-79, 80+) and accounts for differences in susceptibility and infectiousness by age group, seasonality in transmission rate, modes of vaccine protection (e.g., infection, transmission), and vaccine characteristics (e.g., vaccine effectiveness). Model parameters are estimated by fitting the model piecewise to daily cases from the Dutch notification database Osiris from 01 January 2020 to 22 June 2021. Forward simulations are performed from 22 June 2021 to 31 March 2022. We performed sensitivity analyses in which vaccine-induced immunity waned. We found that upon relaxation of all non-pharmaceutical control measures a large wave occurred regardless of vaccination strategy. We found overall reductions of 5.7% (4.4%, 6.9%) of cases, 2.0% (0.7%, 3.2%) of hospital admissions, and 1.7% (0.6%, 2.8%) of IC admissions when those 12 years and above were vaccinated compared to vaccinating only adults. When those 5 years and above were vaccinated we observed reductions of 8.7% (7.5%, 9.9%) of cases, 3.2% (2.0%, 4.5%) of hospital admissions, and 2.4% (1.2%, 3.5%) of IC admissions compared to vaccination in adults only. Benefits of extending vaccination were larger within the age groups included in the vaccination program extension than in other age groups. The benefits of vaccinating adolescents and children were smaller if vaccine protection against infection, hospitalization, and transmission (once infected) wanes. Discussion: Our results highlight the benefits of extending COVID-19 vaccination programs beyond adults to reduce infections and severe outcomes in adolescents and children and in the wider population. A reduction of infections in school-aged children/adolescents may have the added benefit of reducing the need for school closures during a new wave. Additional control measures may be required in future to prevent a large wave despite vaccination program extensions. While the results presented here are based on population characteristics and the COVID-19 vaccination program in The Netherlands, they may provide valuable insights for other countries who are considering COVID-19 vaccination program extensions.

Optimal vaccine allocation for COVID-19 in the Netherlands: a data-driven prioritization (preprint)

For the control of COVID-19, vaccination programmes provide a long-term solution. The amount of available vaccines is often limited, and thus it is crucial to determine the allocation strategy. While mathematical modelling approaches have been used to find an optimal distribution of vaccines, there is an excessively large number of possible schemes to be simulated. Here, we propose an algorithm to find a near-optimal allocation scheme given an intervention objective such as minimization of new infections, hospitalizations, or deaths, where multiple vaccines are available. The proposed principle for allocating vaccines is to target subgroups with the largest reduction in the outcome of interest, such as new infections, due to vaccination that fully immunizes a single individual. We express the expected impact of vaccinating each subgroup in terms of the observed incidence of infection and force of infection. The proposed approach is firstly evaluated with a simulated epidemic and then applied to the epidemiological data on COVID-19 in the Netherlands. Our results reveal how the optimal allocation depends on the objective of infection control. In the case of COVID-19, if we wish to minimize deaths, the optimal allocation strategy is not efficient for minimizing other outcomes, such as infections. In simulated epidemics, an allocation strategy optimized for an outcome outperforms other strategies such as the allocation from young to old, from old to young, and at random. Our simulations clarify that the current policy in the Netherlands (i.e., allocation from old to young) was concordant with the allocation scheme that minimizes deaths. The proposed method provides an optimal allocation scheme, given routine surveillance data that reflect ongoing transmissions. The principle of allocation is useful for providing plausible simulation scenarios for complex models, which give a more robust basis to determine intervention strategies.